$3.4 Trillion Lie: The GOP’s Budget Gimmick Just Got Called Out
The Byrd Rule blocked defunding the CFPB, emissions rollbacks, and more. Now Republicans want to fudge the cost of Trump’s tax cuts with ‘current-policy’ math.
The Senate Parliamentarian has spoken, and parts of the GOP’s so-called “One Big Beautiful Bill” just got a serious trim. This week, Senate rules referee Elizabeth MacDonough ruled that several of the most ideologically charged provisions in the House-passed OBBB violate budget rules and can’t be passed through reconciliation. Translation: they’ll need 60 Senate votes, not 51. That could be a political death sentence in today’s hyper-partisan Senate.
Among the provisions struck:
Defunding the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB)
Eliminating the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board
Slashing Federal Reserve staff pay
Repealing key parts of the Inflation Reduction Act
Rolling back vehicle emissions standards
Blocking judicial enforcement of certain injunctions
It’s a huge blow to the right-wing wish list. The only major provision that survived is a clause letting the federal government withhold broadband funding from states that impose certain AI regulations, arguably the most Orwellian sentence we’ve typed this week.
See our reporting on the AI provision here:
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We’ve been unboxing the budget process and the many landmines buried within it for months. The ICYMI contains multiple articles during the House process. The other articles are updates since.
Why Was That AI Provision Allowed, but Not Defunding the CFPB?
It’s a fair question, and the answer reveals just how murky and manipulable Senate budget rules can be.
The Parliamentarian struck CFPB defunding because its main purpose was policy, not budgeting. The GOP’s aim was to gut an agency they oppose ideologically, not to save money. That’s a no-go under the Byrd Rule.
But the AI broadband provision survived because it changes how money is distributed, even if it’s politically charged. On paper, it’s budget-related: “If a state does X, they lose funding.” That passes the Byrd test, even if the real effect is to coerce states into deregulating AI.
Here’s the kicker: Congress still has to budget the full amount for broadband. The “savings” might never happen. This is budgeting based on a maybe, a policy masquerading as fiscal planning.
However, not everyone is buying it. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R‑Tenn.), a staunch Republican and hardliner, said, “We do not need a moratorium that would prohibit our states from stepping up and protecting citizens in their state.”
Meanwhile, Republicans Are Rigging the Scoreboard
As if the Byrd Rule wrangling weren’t enough, Senate Republicans are trying to rewrite the rules on how Congress measures the cost of extending the Trump tax cuts.
They asked the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) to score the extension not as a new expense, but as a continuation of current policy, as if the tax cuts were never set to expire. It’s a bit like telling your bank your mortgage doesn’t count anymore because you’ve been paying it for years.
The difference?
Traditional scoring puts the cost at $3.8 trillion over 10 years.
“Current policy” scoring—the GOP’s gimmick—claims it’ll only cost $441 billion.
That’s a $3.4 trillion deception. And they’re doing it to sneak the extension into a reconciliation bill that needs only 51 votes.
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D‑Ore.), Ranking Member of the Senate Budget Committee, called this out, saying, “Republicans finally showed their hand, and it’s completely dishonest. ‘Current policy baseline’ is a budget gimmick … while Republicans want everyone to think it adds zero.”
Democrats and any honest budget watchdog should be alarmed. This move rewrites the rules to allow massive tax cuts for the wealthy without accountability. And now, Republicans are even threatening to overrule the Parliamentarian to protect this charade. If they do, they could just as easily override her on the CFPB, the Fed, or emissions protections as well.
Fiscal hawks still have concerns about the overall bill, most notably Sen. Ron Johnson (R‑Wis.), who released a 31-page memo “arguing that the bill will significantly inflate the federal deficit ... the best‑case scenario would only achieve $2.5 trillion in savings—a result he deems unlikely.”
The Takeaway
Budgets are moral documents, and right now, the GOP is using reconciliation to funnel wealth upward, deregulate the future, and bulldoze democratic safeguards. They’re betting that Americans won’t notice the gimmicks. We’re here to make sure they do.
Stay sharp. Stay loud.
ACTION ALERT: CALL YOUR SENATORS TODAY
Let’s turn outrage into action. Our issue isn’t just partisan; it undermines the integrity of our democracy and our budgets. Pick up the phone. Here's how:
1. Dial the U.S. Capitol switchboard: 202‑224‑3121
Tell the operator your ZIP code and ask to be connected to your two U.S. Senators.
2. Use this script (feel free to personalize):
“Hello, my name is [Your Name], and I'm a constituent in [City, ZIP]. I’m calling to urge Senator [Name] to oppose extending Trump’s 2017 tax cuts using deceptive ‘baseline’ accounting, and to support the Senate Parliamentarian’s Byrd Rule rulings that stripped harmful provisions from OBBB.
These are real costs; tax cuts and policy rollbacks add up, even if Republicans say they don't. Please hold the line on honest budgeting and stand up to budget gimmicks.
Thank you.”
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Get exclusive access for just $1/week or $52 a year.
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Bibliography:
"America can't afford Trump's tax cuts. So the GOP is playing pretend." Washington Post. March 31, 2025.
"GOP Wants $4 Trillion Tax Cut to Look Like Nothing." Wall Street Journal. 2025.
Hughes, Siobhan. "Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill’ Gets Slimmed Down in Senate." Wall Street Journal, June 22, 2025.
"Senate parliamentarian deals blow to GOP plan to gut consumer bureau in tax bill." AP News. June 20, 2025.
"Moratorium on state AI regulation clears Senate hurdle." TechCrunch. June 22, 2025.
"Republican plan to scrap US audit watchdog ruled in violation of Senate rules." Financial Times. June 2025.
"Sen. Ron Johnson tears into 'misleading' claims about the true cost of Trump's 'big beautiful' bill." New York Post. June 18, 2025.
"Senate GOP slashes megabill's tax costs with new accounting method." Politico. June 22, 2025.
"'Be careful about this': Warnings abound as GOP considers writing off tax cuts." Politico. March 12, 2025.
"One Big, Beautiful Bill Has More Provisions That Violate the Byrd Rule, According to Senate Parliamentarian." Senate Budget Committee. 2025.
"AI moratorium foes amp up bipartisan pressure against ban on state efforts." Inside AI Policy. June 2025.
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Will Ron Johnson really vote NO? - Will enough Senate Rs stand up to Trump to stop this immoral and irresponsible budget? We hear lots of talk - just as we heard concerns about RFK Jr - or, in Trump 1, about Kavanaugh.
Your’e right.