A Cheaper Thanksgiving, But at What Cost?
Walmart’s 2025 Thanksgiving basket is being held up as proof that inflation is cooling. But look past the headline. Is it true?
You may have seen the headline by now: “Thanksgiving is 25% cheaper this year!” That line has been repeated by major retailers like Walmart, and loudly amplified by President Donald Trump, who recently declared people should “stop talking about affordability.”
On the surface, it’s an irresistible narrative: prices are down, more people are served, and the holiday is saved.
However, dig a little deeper, and the whole story starts to unravel.
Trump’s own Consumer Price Index, released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 24th, reports something very different. Specifically, “The ‘food at home’ index (groceries) rose 2.7% for the 12‑months ending September 2025. The overall ‘food’ index (groceries + food away from home) rose 3.1% for the same period.”
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2024 vs. 2025: What’s Actually in These Baskets?
Walmart’s Thanksgiving “meal basket” is a promotional bundle. It is a curated selection of products meant to represent a full holiday dinner, but it is not comprehensive grocery data. It’s being used to suggest meaningful price relief.
So let’s actually look at what’s changed.
The 2024 Basket (Serves 8)
List copied directly from Walmart’s 2024 Announcement
Whole Frozen Turkey 10 – 16 lb. ($0.88/lb.)
Great Value Sweet Hawaiian Rolls (1 unit – 12oz)
Great Value Golden Sweet Whole Kernel Corn (3 units - 15oz)
Ocean Spray® Jellied Cranberry Sauce (1 unit - 14oz)
Great Value Canned Green Beans (2 units - 14.5oz)
French’s Crispy Fried Onions (1 unit - 6oz)
Campbell’s Condensed Cream of Mushroom Soup (2 units - 10.5oz)
Great Value Brown Gravy Mix (2 units - 0.87oz)
Marie Callender’s Southern Pecan Pie (1 unit - 32oz)
Great Value Frozen Whipped Topping (1 unit - 8oz)
Great Value Frozen Deep Dish Pie Crusts (1 unit - 16oz)
Great Value 100% Pure Pumpkin (1 unit - 15oz)
Great Value Evaporated Milk (1 unit – 12 fl oz)
Jet-Puffed Mini Marshmallows (1 unit - 10oz)
Jiffy Corn Muffin Mix (2 units - 8.5oz)
Great Value Poultry Seasoning (1 unit - 1.5oz)
Swanson Chicken Broth (1 unit - 32oz)
Fresh Whole Russet Potatoes (1 unit - 5lbs)
Fresh Whole Sweet Potatoes (3 units)
Fresh Yellow Onions (1 unit - 3lbs)
Fresh Celery Stalks (1 unit)
Total: 29 items. A full meal including protein (turkey), four starches (roll, mashed potatoes, sweet potatoes, homemade stuffing), two vegetables (corn and green bean casserole), and two desserts (pumpkin and pecan pie), plus cranberry sauce, and gravy.
The 2025 Basket (Serves 10)
List copied directly from Walmart’s 2025 Announcement
Butterball Turkey, 13.5 lb. ($0.97/lb. — lowest price since 2019)
Kinder’s Fried Onions, 4.5 oz.
Campbells Cream of Mushroom Soup, 10.5 oz. (1 can)
Stove Top Turkey Stuffing, Twin Pack 2 x 6 oz.
Great Value Dinner Rolls, 12 ct.
Fresh Russet Potatoes, 5 lb.
Fresh Cranberries, 12 oz.
Great Value Baby Carrots, 2 lb.
Great Value Corn, 15 oz. (3 cans)
Great Value Green Beans, 14.5 oz. (3 cans)
Great Value Artisan Macaroni & Cheese, 12 oz. (3 boxes)
Great Value Brown Gravy Mix, 0.87 oz. (2)
Great Value Pie Crusts
Great Value Evaporated Milk, 12 fl. oz.
Great Value 100% Pure Pumpkin, 15 oz.
Total: 22 items. Protein (turkey), four starches (mashed potatoes, mac & cheese, stuffing, roll), three veggies (carrots, corn, green bean casserole), and 1 dessert (pumpkin pie), plus fresh cranberries and gravy.
Serving 10 with One 13.5-lb Turkey? Let’s Do the Math
Walmart’s 2025 basket claims it “serves 10 people” with a 13.5-pound Butterball turkey, which they remark is the lowest price per pound since 2019. That sounds generous until you break it down.
Standard Turkey Math (That’s a thing):
The general rule is 1 to 1.5 pounds of turkey per person — raw weight, factoring in bones, shrinkage, and leftovers.
1 lb/person = very modest portions (some say not enough for dinner and seconds, and is it even Thanksgiving if there are no seconds?).
1.25–1.5 lb/person = realistic serving sizes, plus a little wiggle room.
2025 Turkey: 13.5 lbs for 10 people
That’s 1.35 lbs per person, on paper, within the acceptable range.
However, that’s assuming every ounce is edible, which it isn’t.
Bones, shrinkage from roasting, trimming fat, and skin add up.
After cooking, a 13.5-lb turkey yields maybe 9 to 10 lbs of actual meat.
So that’s closer to 0.9–1 lb of meat per person, barely enough for Thanksgiving, especially with no hearty dessert or a second protein/starch.
The 2024 Basket Was More Flexible
The 2024 basket offered a range: 10–16 lbs, letting shoppers scale up or down.
It also didn’t specify the brand, and the 2024 Walmart announcement claimed the price was nearly a dime per pound lower than Butterball's 2025 price.
A 16-lb turkey for 8 people is 2 lbs/person — abundant with leftovers.
It’s not just about size. It’s about choice and flexibility, which the 2025 basket quietly takes away.
It’s Just Enough to Say It’s Enough
The 2025 basket turkey technically feeds 10 people.
It gets the job done — barely — and only if no one asks for seconds or most of your guests are small children.
A Simpler Meal But Also a Smaller One
The 2025 basket substitutes one classic starch (sweet potatoes plus marshmallows subbed with boxed mac and cheese), swaps out a few brand names for generics, and trims back key ingredients (broth, veggies for stuffing) while claiming to serve more people at a lower cost. It also removes an entire dessert.
Yes, it’s cheaper, but that’s because there’s less to eat. What’s left is blander, more processed, and less festive.
Take stuffing. In 2024, it was assumed you’d add chopped celery, onions, and broth to create a rich, savory dish made essentially from scratch with corn muffins. In 2025? Just open two boxes of Stove Top. No aromatics. No depth. Just salt and stale bread.
Same with green bean casserole— less soup, more beans, smaller onions. It’s a downgrade that changes the entire texture and taste.
And the turkey? In the 2025 basket, there’s no broth for basting. Even if it is a better brand (subjective), no basting means drier and less flavor.
Cooking From the Basket? Good Luck.
Both baskets assume you have basic kitchen staples: butter, spices, oil, salt, and pepper. Without them, this meal — particularly the 2025 version — would taste like hospital food on a budget. Technically edible. Deeply uninspiring.
Generic Doesn’t Mean Equivalent
To be fair, generic products can be just as good as name brands — sometimes better. But their substitution here isn’t about quality. It’s about lowering the basket price to create a viral talking point.
According to Reuters, “Walmart’s meal this year features nine Great Value private-label brand items out of 15, compared with nine out of 21 brands last year — a higher percentage of in-house brands.”
All of it adds up to a meal that looks cheaper —because it is —but not in a way that gives shoppers more for less. Just… less.
What’s Really Being Sold Here
This isn’t just about holiday groceries. It’s about perception manipulation.
Walmart gets to claim affordability leadership. Trump gets to claim inflation is over. And the average American family gets a Thanksgiving with less dessert, bland stuffing, and fewer traditional options, all while being told to stop complaining.
And let’s be honest. How many Americans have any clue what to do with raw cranberries?
It’s corporate inflation theater propping up political theater.
Be Honest About What’s Changed
Walmart’s 2025 Thanksgiving basket doesn’t prove inflation is over. It proves that if you shrink the menu, swap the brands, and cut a pie, you can lower the price.
But that’s not affordability. It’s austerity.
When someone tells you prices are down and you can stop thinking about affordability, ask your wallet if that is true.
Keep your steamed carrots and fresh cranberries. We are having sweet potatoes, canned cranberry sauce, and a stuffing worth dreaming about.
Stay Informed. Stay Loud.
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Sources:
Walmart Sets the Table Early With a Thanksgiving Meal for Less Than $7 per Person — Walmart Corporate News (Oct 17, 2024)
Walmart steps up its ‘inflation free’ holiday meal promotion — Grocery Dive (Sept 20, 2024)
Walmart’s Annual Thanksgiving Meal Returns — Serving 10 People for Less Than $4.00 Per Person — Walmart Corporate News (Oct 21, 2025)
Walmart cuts Thanksgiving meal price to $4‑per‑person — Reuters (Oct 21, 2025)
Major retailers promise a cheaper Thanksgiving, but there’s twist — Reuters (Nov 8, 2025)
Consumer Price Index News Release - 2025 M09 Results
 | A guest post by
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It's fraud. It's a scam. It‘s deception.
Finally, someone acknowledging austerity measures in Trumptown.