Atlantic Hurricane Forecast Looks Quieter as El Niño Builds, But Risk Remains
A developing El Niño could help make the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season quieter than normal, but forecasters are warning coastal residents not to treat the outlook as a reason to let their guard down.
NOAA says an average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. The Atlantic season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
El Niño often suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear, which can disrupt storms before they strengthen. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82% chance during May through July.
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The practical takeaway is simple. A lower seasonal forecast does not predict whether a storm will hit locally. Emergency planning, insurance reviews and evacuation preparation still matter because one storm can cause serious damage even in a quieter year.
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