Bessent Says U.S. Can Grow 3.5% in 2026 Despite Weak Q4 GDP
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent delivered a blunt economic outlook this week, saying the U.S. can still achieve at least 3.5% growth in 2026 despite a weak finish to last year.
His comments raised eyebrows because they contrast with softer GDP data, and come amid ongoing economic challenges tied to political gridlock and trade uncertainty.
According to Reuters, Bessent told Fox News’ “The Will Cain Show” that the economy’s growth rate slowed to about 1.4% in the fourth quarter mainly because of the historic partial government shutdown and significant industry losses.
Bessent said that without those disruptions, growth could have been 1 to 2 percentage points higher — a striking assessment of how much politics may have weighed on the economy.
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That projection comes as the administration also deals with the fallout of a Supreme Court decision invalidating key tariff authority. Despite that ruling, Bessent told other audiences that new tariff tools may keep tariff revenue “virtually unchanged” in 2026, though legal fights over refunds could drag on.
“It was this longest shutdown in history that caused the fourth quarter to crash,” Bessent said in the interview.
His forecast matters because it suggests stronger growth ahead — but only if political stalemates and regulatory battles ease, creating room for investment and hiring.
Markets and policymakers will now watch incoming data to see if the economy’s momentum matches his optimistic projection.
The next major economic report — first-quarter GDP results — is due out in April and will be one of the first real tests of his forecast.
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