BREAKING: SCOTUS Lets Trump’s Transgender Military Ban Take Effect and Shows Its Hand

The Court isn’t ruling on constitutionality. It’s sidestepping it. What it allows says everything.

In a procedural but deeply consequential order issued May 6, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to enforce Executive Order 14183, a directive reinstating the ban on transgender individuals serving in the military. The decision follows a stay application originally presented to Justice Elena Kagan and referred to the full Court. In a brief unsigned ruling, the Court stayed a March 27 injunction that had blocked the order, pending appeal.

This isn’t a final ruling. But it’s a revealing one.

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The justices weren’t asked to determine whether the transgender military ban is constitutional, only whether it could be enforced while litigation plays out. That decision hinges on three traditional criteria: the government’s likelihood of success on appeal, whether irreparable harm would occur without the stay, and whether public interest supports the move.

On all counts, the ruling fails to meet its own standards.

The Trump administration has presented no new evidence — no updated military data, no demonstrated threat to readiness — that would increase its chances of winning on appeal. In fact, every credible study, including the Pentagon-commissioned RAND report, shows that inclusive service has a negligible impact on unit cohesion or cost. A similar executive order was struck down during his previous administration, and nothing new has been added to support a different outcome.

As for harm? The government vaguely gestures at military cohesion, while the tangible, immediate harm falls squarely on transgender troops: careers cut short, discharges underway, benefits at risk, lives upended. And yet the Court ruled for enforcement.

The public interest test also rings hollow. This policy reversal introduces financial waste, destabilizes units, and guarantees future legal liability if, as past precedent strongly suggests, the courts ultimately find it unconstitutional again.

This decision isn’t about readiness. It’s about a Court increasingly comfortable deferring to the executive, not when national security is at risk, but when ideology is.

That’s the story. The transgender ban may again fall in the courts. But today, the Supreme Court let it rise, not because it had to, but because it chose to.

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Bibliography:

• Palm Center. DoD’s Transgender Ban Has Harmed Military Readiness. August 2018.

• RAND Corporation. Assessing the Implications of Allowing Transgender Personnel to Serve Openly. 2016.

• Supreme Court of the United States. Order List: 24A1030, United States, et al. v. Shilling, Commander, et al. May 6, 2025.

• Wikipedia contributors. “Executive Order 14183.” Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Last modified May 6, 2025.

• Wikipedia contributors. “Karnoski v. Trump.” Wikipedia, The Free Encyclopedia. Last modified May 6, 2025.

• Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney). “BREAKING: Supreme Court grants Trump admin request to lift injunction on transgender military ban. Decision allows ban to take effect amid ongoing litigation. Doc: 24A1030.” X (formerly Twitter). May 6, 2025.

• Law Dork. “Supreme Court Allows Enforcement of Trump’s Transgender Military Ban.” Law Dork. May 6, 2025.