CNN Analyst: Trump Now 43 Points Underwater With Independent Voters
Independent voters have been the political weather vane of the Trump era. According to a new analysis from CNN’s chief data reporter Harry Enten, that weather has turned into a full-on storm for the president.
On a recent segment on CNN, Enten walked viewers through an updated average of national polling on Donald Trump’s standing with independents. His bottom line: Trump’s net approval among independent voters has fallen from –4 points in January to –43 points now, a 39-point slide in less than a year.
“Whatever he is doing with independents, it ain’t working,” Enten said. “They despise him at this point.”
Net approval measures approval minus disapproval. Being 43 points “underwater” means that, in the polls CNN averaged, independent voters disapprove of Trump’s performance by a margin of roughly two-to-one or worse. Enten warned that numbers like that are politically toxic: a president “43 points underwater with independents” simply “can’t win with this” if it holds through the next midterm elections.
What’s driving the collapse?
The CNN analysis lines up with other recent polling that shows independents souring on Trump across a range of issues:
An October Economist/YouGov survey found Trump’s overall job approval at 39% approve, 58% disapprove, the worst net rating of his second term. YouGov
Separate polling reported by ABC News shows majorities of independents blaming Trump for ongoing inflation and rating his handling of the economy poorly.
Broad issue polling summarized by analyst John Halpin finds independents giving Trump particularly harsh marks on inflation and prices, with net approval around –40 on that single issue alone.
Put together, the picture is that independents are feeling the squeeze from higher prices and remain skeptical of Trump’s handling of the economy, foreign policy and the broader direction of the country. CNN’s Enten described their view of Trump’s performance as “atrocious.”
Why independents matter
Enten also emphasized why this one group looms so large. Independents are a smaller share of the electorate than Democrats or Republicans, but they are heavily concentrated in the swing districts and states that decide control of Congress and the White House.
“When you’re 43 points underwater with independents, you know you’re doing terribly,” he said on air. “If this holds for next year’s midterm election, wave goodbye to that House Republican majority.”
For now, the CNN board tells a simple story: Trump started the year only slightly underwater with independents. Eleven months later, that gap has widened into a canyon.
Whether the White House can claw back any of that ground—on prices, on the economy, or on the growing pile of Trump-related controversies—may determine not just the next election map, but who holds power in Washington after 2026.