Economists Blast “Wacky” November Inflation Data After Housing Costs Were Assumed Zero
The latest U.S. inflation report showed a surprisingly sharp decline in price growth for November, but top economists warned the figure may not be reliable. According to Fortune and other outlets, key housing data was effectively assumed to be flat after the government shutdown hampered standard price collection, making the headline number appear cooler than reality.
The unusual result has sparked tension between policymakers touting economic progress and analysts urging skepticism. With shelter costs accounting for the largest share of core inflation, the absence of real housing price data has raised questions about the validity of the report.
Confirmed Bureau of Labor Statistics figures show the Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% in November from a year earlier, below the roughly 3.1% economists expected and down from 3.0% in September. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, came in at 2.6%.
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But the recent government shutdown prevented the BLS from collecting essential price surveys in October, forcing statisticians to use assumptions that in some cases treated housing inflation as zero. Economists say this distorts the data and understates upward price pressures in categories like rent.
“This was one flawed CPI report,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, capturing broad professional concern.
Why it matters…
Inflation data drives Federal Reserve policy and public confidence in economic messaging. A misleading dip, if taken at face value, could influence interest rate expectations and financial markets. The White House has highlighted the report as evidence of economic strength, but analysts caution it may reflect statistical quirks rather than true price trends.
What happens next?
All eyes will be on future data releases, especially once full price collection resumes, to see whether the cooling trend holds or reverts as March and January figures arrive.
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