El Niño May Lower Hurricane Activity, But Residents Are Still Being Warned to Prepare
A developing El Niño could make the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season less active than normal, but forecasters are still warning residents not to treat a quieter forecast as a safety guarantee.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. NOAA says an average season produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes.
The reason this year’s outlook may be lower is El Niño. The climate pattern often increases wind shear over the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical systems to organize and strengthen.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82% chance during May through July and a 96% chance of continuing through winter.
Colorado State University researchers have also forecast a somewhat below-average Atlantic season.
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But the local risk does not disappear. Seasonal forecasts estimate overall basin activity. They do not predict whether a storm will make landfall, how strong a local storm could be, or whether flooding, storm surge or power outages could affect specific neighborhoods.
That is why the practical message for coastal residents remains unchanged. Review evacuation zones, check insurance coverage, prepare supplies and monitor official forecasts as the season develops.
A quieter season can still produce a damaging storm. The forecast may be encouraging, but it is not a reason to skip preparation.
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