Federal Reserve Survey: Americans Expect 10.1% Medical-Cost Surge Next Year

Americans are growing increasingly worried about their healthcare costs. The New York Fed’s November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed that households now anticipate a 10.1% jump in medical care costs over the next year — the largest expected increase since 2014.

This concern comes just as enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act are set to expire, putting families at risk of steep premium hikes. According to the survey, views of personal finances worsened significantly compared with a year ago — even as broader inflation expectations held steady and confidence in the labor market edged up slightly.

The expected surge isn’t confined to household forecasts. Employer-sponsored health plans are also bracing for higher costs. A recent Mercer survey projects a 6.5% increase in employer health-benefit costs in 2026 — the biggest single-year jump since 2010.

If underlying projections hold true, many Americans could face a double whammy: higher premiums and more expensive out-of-pocket medical bills. Policy changes — especially around ACA subsidies — and actions by insurers will play a major role in determining whether these expectations translate into reality.

As consumers tighten their belts in anticipation, the big question remains: will lawmakers or insurers step in to soften the blow, or will families end up paying far more for medical care in the coming year?

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