Goldman Sachs Exposes 40-Year Data Showing AI Job Loss ‘Scarring’ Risk
Goldman Sachs is warning that AI-driven job disruption could leave workers with years of lower pay and stalled careers, reshaping how different generations experience economic risk.
The tension is emerging between who gets hit first and who suffers longest, as early layoffs and long-term damage split across age groups.
According to a Goldman Sachs report analyzing 40 years of labor data, workers displaced by technology face about a 3% wage cut and nearly 10 percentage points lower earnings growth over the following decade.
The bank found these workers also take longer to find new jobs and are more likely to move into lower-skill roles, slowing wealth accumulation and delaying milestones like homeownership.
But the generational picture is more complicated than expected, raising new questions about who is actually most at risk.
“Over the 10 years following a job loss, real earnings…grow nearly 10 percentage points less,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote.
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While Gen Z workers are seeing immediate pressure in entry-level roles, Goldman’s long-term data suggests younger, college-educated workers adapt faster by switching careers and upgrading skills.
That leaves older workers with specialized, less flexible experience facing deeper “scarring” effects, especially during economic downturns when layoffs accelerate.
With AI already linked to an estimated 16,000 lost jobs per month and up to 7% of roles at risk, the divide between short-term disruption and long-term damage is becoming more pronounced.
What happens next may depend on retraining, economic conditions, and how quickly workers can adapt to a shifting labor market.
The outcome could redefine which generation carries the true cost of automation.
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