Internal GOP Poll Leak Shows James Talarico Leading Ken Paxton in 2026 Texas Senate Matchup
A leaked GOP internal poll suggests Democrat James Talarico could lead Republican Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate general election match-up, a surprising development in the Lone Star State’s deep-red landscape. The numbers matter now because they come from the National Republican Senatorial Committee — the party’s own Senate arm.
The leak raises tension among GOP operatives, who fear Paxton’s vulnerabilities could make a traditionally safe Republican seat competitive in November. Texas hasn’t elected a Democratic U.S. Senator in decades.
According to posted summaries of the internal NRSC memo, Talarico leads Paxton by approximately three points, while Democratic rival Jasmine Crockett trails Paxton by about one point in the same polling. The memo also reportedly shows incumbent Republican Sen. John Cornyn outperforming Paxton and Talarico in head-to-head scenarios. These toplines were shared on social platforms but the full poll data — sample size, methodology and live interviews — haven’t been released publicly.
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Public polling still shows a very tight Democratic primary between Talarico and Crockett and an unsettled GOP primary among Cornyn, Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt. Emerson College polling has shown Talarico ahead of Crockett publicly, but general election head-to-head numbers in that public data were closer or slightly tilted Republican.
“This internal snapshot underscores why Republicans are treating every possible outcome seriously,” said a GOP strategist familiar with internal polling.
The implications are significant: if Paxton wins the GOP nomination, Democrats see opportunity to flip the seat, while Cornyn’s emergence could blunt that pathway. Republican primary voters go to the polls March 3, with early voting beginning February 17. What happens next could reshape national Senate balance heading into November.
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