Ken Paxton-Cornyn Runoff Tests GOP Electability in Texas Senate Race

Texas Republicans will decide Tuesday whether Sen. John Cornyn or Attorney General Ken Paxton advances to November’s U.S. Senate race against Democrat James Talarico.

The runoff has become more than a primary fight. President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton, strengthening the attorney general’s position with GOP runoff voters. Cornyn, meanwhile, is making an electability argument: that Paxton’s legal and ethics history could give Democrats their best opening in Texas in decades.

Texas Democrats have not won a statewide office since 1994, but polling has shown Talarico competitive in hypothetical matchups against both Republicans. A University of Houston poll found Paxton narrowly leading Cornyn among likely runoff voters, 48% to 45%, within the margin of error.

The practical consequence is national. If Texas becomes competitive, Republicans may be forced to spend heavily defending a seat they usually count on, reducing resources for other Senate races. The runoff winner will shape not only the Texas race, but the Senate map heading into November.

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