Rollins’ “Almost No Evidence” Claim Crumbles — China Imports Zero U.S. Soybeans in September
The trade war triggered by tariffs imposed under President Donald Trump is visibly crushing parts of U.S. agriculture and the contrast with official rhetoric could not be starker.
On one side, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins recently hinted that the data shows “almost zero evidence” that tariffs hurt U.S. farmers. But on the other side, trade and commodity market reporters say U.S. soy exports, especially to China have all but collapsed.
Reuters reported that in September 2025, China purchased zero soybeans from the United States, the first such drop since 2018. Earlier in the year, China’s monthly imports dropped dramatically amid retaliatory levies on U.S. agricultural goods.
China has since turned primarily to South American suppliers, notably Brazil, leaving U.S. farmers scrambling. “U.S. soybeans are too expensive for Chinese buyers,” one Chicago trader told Reuters.
The ripple effects have been severe. U.S. soybean prices plunged to multi-year lows even as crop yields remained high. Many farmers now face unsold harvests, storage shortages, and prices below cost of production.
Faced with these losses, the administration unveiled a $12 billion “Farmer Bridge Assistance” package: roughly $11 billion earmarked for row-crop growers — including soybean farmers — with an additional $1 billion for specialty crops.
That bailout — funded by tariffs — underscores the gravity of the downturn faced by the agricultural sector. It also highlights a sharp divergence between official claims and economic realities.
For many farm families, the pledged aid is welcome but insufficient, what once was America’s largest agricultural export market may now be lost for good, as China deepens ties with South America. If so, the pain may persist long after the checks are mailed. What happens next likely depends on whether new trade deals can reopen Chinese markets at competitive prices, a tough ask given the strident tariffs still in effect.
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