Small Businesses Shed 120,000 Jobs — Lutnick Claims ‘Numbers Will Be Fantastic’
The U.S. private sector unexpectedly lost 32,000 jobs in November, according to new data from ADP — a sharp reversal from economists’ expectations of modest growth and a troubling sign for the broader labor market.
The losses were driven overwhelmingly by small businesses, which shed an estimated 120,000 jobs, wiping out modest gains among larger firms. Analysts warn that small-business declines often serve as an early warning sign for broader economic weakness, especially when consumers are already strained.
The report carries outsized weight this month because official government labor data has been delayed by the recent federal shutdown, making the ADP snapshot one of the few windows into the health of the job market.
During an appearance on CNBC, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick dismissed concerns about the economic fallout tied to tariffs or weakening demand, instead blaming “the Democrat shutdown” for the disappointing numbers and predicting that “next year the numbers are going to be fantastic.”
Economists are far less certain. Several warn that repeated monthly declines — November marks the third private-sector job loss in four months — suggest the labor market is cooling more quickly than expected. ADP’s chief economist has cautioned that small firms are the “canary in the coal mine,” noting that sustained losses in this sector often bleed into consumer spending and hiring across the economy.
The Federal Reserve is also watching closely. With financial-market volatility rising and inflation data delayed, a weakening labor market could complicate the central bank’s December policy meeting — and increase pressure on officials to determine whether further rate cuts are warranted.
For now, November’s figures raise fresh concerns about the direction of the economy heading into 2026. Small-business struggles, slowing hiring, and ongoing uncertainty around tariffs and government operations point to a job market losing steam at a critical moment for workers and employers alike.