Trump Suggests Income Tax Could Be Eliminated as Admin Pushes Unverified $33B Tariff Figure
President Donald Trump said this week that his administration may “substantially cut, and maybe completely cut” federal income taxes over the next few years, citing rising tariff revenue as the reason. The comment was first reported by Reuters, which confirmed Trump made the statement during remarks to U.S. military service members.
But the administration and its media allies continue promoting a $33 billion monthly tariff figure that does not match official government data — raising questions about whether the number is being used to sell the idea that income taxes could disappear.
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Official Data Shows Less Than $33B
Federal budget reports show the U.S. collected $31.4 billion in tariffs in October, the highest monthly total on record. Independent analyses place the figure around $32 billion, not $33 billion.
Despite this, FOX News and several pro-administration outlets have repeatedly cited “$33B in October tariff revenue.” No Treasury report lists that amount.
Tariffs Don’t Come Close to Replacing Income Taxes
Even at elevated levels, tariffs produce only a fraction of what income taxes bring in:
Income tax revenue: roughly $2.5 trillion last year
Projected tariff revenue for 2025: about $195–200 billion
That means tariffs generate less than 10% of what would be required to eliminate income taxes.
Economists note that replacing income taxes with tariffs would require massive hikes on imported goods, leading to higher prices for American consumers and reduced import volume — which would also shrink tariff revenue.
Who Pays Tariffs?
Despite political messaging that foreign countries “pay” tariffs, import duties are paid by U.S. companies, which pass these costs to consumers. Analysts say ignoring this fact makes the revenue look larger and more sustainable than it is.
Key Question
With the numbers not lining up, analysts are asking whether the Trump administration is using the inflated $33B claim to persuade Americans that income taxes could vanish — even though the math does not support it.
Federal agencies have not released any plan or data showing how tariffs could replace income tax revenue.