U.S. Intel Warns Iran Government Not Close to Collapse Despite Airstrikes
U.S. intelligence agencies say Iran’s government is not close to collapsing, even after weeks of heavy U.S. and Israeli strikes that killed the country’s longtime supreme leader.
The assessment clashes with public speculation that the bombing campaign could quickly bring down the Islamic Republic.
According to Reuters, multiple U.S. intelligence reports conclude Iran’s leadership structure remains largely intact and still maintains control over the population. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the new leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the slain supreme leader, are continuing to run the state.
That finding complicates the strategic question facing Washington and Israel.
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Officials involved in the analysis say there is no clear evidence that the air campaign alone will trigger regime collapse, even as thousands of strikes have targeted Iranian military assets.
At the same time, the war is expanding beyond Iran’s borders. Energy markets have surged, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been attacked, and regional militias tied to Tehran are escalating attacks across the Middle East.
Opposition figures and Western officials increasingly warn that military pressure by itself may not produce regime change without a major internal uprising.
For now, intelligence officials say the Iranian government remains firmly in power but acknowledge the situation inside the country could shift quickly.
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