USDA Data Shows China’s U.S. Soybean Purchases Lag Far Behind Trade-Truce Target

China is poised to log a record year for soybean imports in 2025, as strong demand from South America collides with a renewed — though limited — reopening to U.S. soybean shipments following a trade truce with Washington. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China brought in 8.11 million metric tons of soybeans in November, a 13.4% increase from a year earlier. That brings the year-to-date import total for the first 11 months to 103.79 million tons — 6.9% more than in 2024.

Analysts at Shanghai-based consultancy JCI and other firms project full-year imports could surpass 110 million tons, with some estimates rising as high as 112 million. That would set a new record for the world’s top soybean buyer.

The jump in imports is driven primarily by robust purchases from Brazil, which has surged its soybean exports to meet Chinese demand. At the same time, China has reopened to U.S. soybeans: since late October, the state-owned buyer COFCO has reportedly booked about 2.7 million tons of U.S. beans.

However, that figure is far below the approximately 12 million tons Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said China agreed to purchase under the deal — a pledge that now appears likely to extend into early 2026.

Some analysts are cautious about how much more U.S. soybeans China will buy. Despite tariff waivers, massive stockpiles at Chinese ports and weak processing margins for crushers could discourage further imports.

What happens next will depend on December’s final inventory levels and whether Chinese processors begin drawing down stock — possibly reopening appetite for more U.S. soybeans. Observers are watching closely whether COFCO or other importers follow through with additional commitments.

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